If 2023 taught the Yankees anything, it’s the importance of having at least league-average production at as many positions as possible. Only Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Rizzo were league-average or better among the 13 hitters to log at least 150 plate appearances for the Yankees last season (the latter two just barely fitting the bill by wRC+). Juan Soto is the type of star that every team should be trying to acquire should he become available, but the winter additions of Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo cannot be overlooked, particularly the latter.
When the Yankees acquired Verdugo from the Red Sox as their first piece of offseason business, it raised some eyebrows due to the historical lack of movement between the two rivals and the perceived lack of starpower he had to offer the lineup. However, it is through the lens of raising the floor of the outfield’s offensive production that the move makes sense. In his four years in Boston, Verdugo was slightly above average with the bat (105 wRC+), offering a high-contact approach and roughly league-average defense if you integrate DRS and OAA, who disagree on his performance. However, I don’t think anyone could have predicted his start to the 2024 campaign.
Entering play Sunday, Verdugo’s 132 wRC+ ranked in the top 50 of qualified hitters and seventh among qualified left fielders. For the last time the Yankees had two starting outfielders post a 130 wRC+ or better, you have to go back to 2020 when Clint Frazier had a 150 wRC+ in 39 games and Judge 140 in 28 games. The crazy part is that Judge doesn’t even count toward this year’s pairing, his 117 wRC+ prior to yesterday’s win below that of Verdugo and Soto. The production has been consistent across the games Verdugo has appeared in, and he has already provided some game-changing hits in his first 32 games.
Verdugo’s production is founded upon some of the best plate discipline in the game. Through his first 32 games in pinstripes, Verdugo is one of only four qualified hitters to walk more than they strike out, alongside Soto, Mookie Betts, and Vinnie Pasquantino. His 9.1-percent strikeout rate is fourth-lowest among qualified hitters and 12.9-percent walk rate placing him among the top 25.
He is able to achieve this with an incredibly disciplined eye and elite bat-to-ball skills. Verdugo’s 23.7-percent chase rate is 20th-lowest among qualified hitters, so pitchers have a hard time getting him to swing at pitches he can’t handle. And when he does swing, he usually doesn’t miss. His 12.2-percent whiff rate is 12th-lowest among qualified hitters, his zone-contact rate is even better placing ninth at 94.2-percent, and his chase-contact rate of 76-percent is good for eighteenth, showing that even when he does get fooled, he’s able to spoil the pitch and keep the PA alive more than three out of every four times.
The reports that followed Verdugo from Boston said that he was a competent fielder in left, but he has already shown he is the complete package on the long grass. His two Outs Above Average tie him for fifth among qualified left fielders. He achieve this with some top-notch reads of the baseball, his 1.3 feet above average placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to reaction off the bat and his 1.4 feet above average for jump to the baseball placing him in the 72nd percentile. He’s even able to keep base runner honest with an 87.7 mph average arm strength that places him in the 57th percentile of qualified outfielders.
There is no doubting that Verdugo is a massive upgrade over last year’s options. In 2023, Yankees left fielders combined for -1.2 fWAR and a 75 wRC+ — worst and second-worst, respectively, in the league. They also accumulated two Outs Above Average across the entire season, a mark Verdugo could quintuple at his current pace
It’s a big step up from the likes of Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney to the rock-sold play of Verdugo. He couldn’t have picked a better time for a career-best start to a campaign, both for his new team’s aspirations and his own prospects in a platform year.
